ICRA, an independent and professional investment information and credit rating agency, has said in its latest press note that the population of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs), older than 15 years at around 1.1 million units as on 31 March 2024, presents a substantial scrappage opportunity, but the real scrappage could be lower considering the nature of such vehicles' use. The agency is clear, though, that even if a certain proportion of these vehicles are disposed of, it can increase demand for replacements and so increase auto sales.

ICRA estimates that in the upcoming fiscal years (FY2025 and FY2026), an additional 570,000 vehicles will surpass the 15-year age criteria. Furthermore, it presents a sizable replacement demand potential for the automobile sector, since over 900,000 government vehicles are expected to be mandatory demolished under the first phase. The agency further says that scrappage potential in other segments is limited considering the low use of two-wheelers, passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) beyond 15 years. Only 44,803 private scrap applications and 41,432 government scrap applications (including defence/impound scrap applications) had been received by the registered vehicle scrapping facilities (RVSFs) as of 31 August 2024. Announced in March 2021 in India, the Scrappage Policy, also known as the Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernisation Programme, is being implemented in phases, with effect from 1 April 2023. The second phase of the strategy, which began on 1 June 2024, requires scrapping based on the vehicle's fitness rather than age, making it more optional than the first phase, which sought to force the scrapping of government vehicles older than 15 years.

India now has 117 RVSFs nationwide in terms of scrappage infrastructure, and 50–70 more are anticipated to be put into service over the course of the next four to five years. Although the majority of RVSFs are now located in metro and tier-1 areas, as public awareness of the Scrappage Policy grows and the government enforces it more strictly, additional scrappage facilities are anticipated to be established across the nation. A nationwide network of scrapping facilities operated by unorganised parties will supplement the RVSFs set up by the automakers in the process of recycling and scrapping end-of-life (ELV) vehicles.

Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice President & Co-Group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said, “The Vehicle Scrappage Policy has the potential to drive multiple benefits over the long term. While it will aid in reducing air pollution as older polluting vehicles get scrapped, it will also drive fleet modernisation programmes, in turn, supporting the auto industry volumes. ICRA also expects a considerable reduction in scrap imports and raw material costs for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) through recycling of metals under the Scrappage Policy framework. Implementation of the Vehicle Scrappage Policy, however, faces several challenges, which have slowed down its pace of implementation. The limited network of RVSFs at present, inadequate incentives, lack of awareness about this policy, particularly among private vehicle owners, and issues related to registration date criteria are a few factors that have hindered the rapid implementation of the policy. While several countries in North America and the Western European region have incentivised vehicle scrappages, mainly in the form of monetary compensations, India’s implementation of the Vehicular Scrappage Policy comprises voluntary incentives (such as discounts, road tax rebates, registration fee waivers etc.) and mandatory dis-incentives (such as mandatory fitness tests, imposition of green tax, hike in renewal fees for older vehicles etc.). As on 31 August 2024, the RVSFs had received only 44,803 private scrap applications and 41,432 government scrap applications (including defence/impound scrap applications).”

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Ashok Leyland is riding multiple tailwinds at once viz-a-viz a sharp uptick in exports led by the GCC, a strong domestic CV cycle driven by freight demand and fleet replacement and an expanding electric bus strategy that now includes a potential manufacturing footprint in Indonesia.

Speaking on the sidelines of the company’s Q3FY26 results announcement, Executive Chairman Dheeraj Hinduja and Chief Executive Officer Shenu Agarwal detailed how the company’s international operations, EV roadmap, new product launches and capex programme are aligning to position the CV maker for sustained growth into FY27.

Hinduja highlighted that exports have been extremely good this year with particularly strong traction from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“The Saudi market and the UAE market continue to be very strong. We have developed products that are very suitable for these economies and our Ras Al Khaimah plant is working nearly at full capacity,” he said.

The GCC markets are now a key growth engine within Ashok Leyland’s international portfolio and overall overseas operations are expected to close the year on a robust note. The near-full utilisation at the facility underlines not only demand strength but also the company’s increasing localisation and relevance in these markets.

Furthermore, a recent MOU with PT Pindad in Indonesia marks Ashok Leyland’s intent to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia. Hinduja noted that the agreement was signed only last week and is aimed at building a much larger footprint in a sizeable market.

“This opportunity allows us to not only focus on electric buses but also on defence products,” he said, indicating that the partnership has a wider scope than just EV mobility.

While still in early stages, the understanding is that the collaboration could evolve into local manufacturing of vehicles in Indonesia for the domestic market, strengthening Ashok Leyland’s ASEAN presence while aligning with local industrial priorities. “We see good opportunities going forward in the Indonesian market,” Hinduja added.

Promising Q1FY27

On the near-term outlook, Hinduja said the momentum seen from Q1 through Q3 has continued into Q4. “The current quarter is looking very good. We have seen steady growth from Q1, Q2 and Q3, and this current quarter is also looking very strong,” he said, citing CRISIL estimates that suggest the company could close the year with overall growth of 10–12 percent.

Looking ahead, while Q1 is traditionally softer for the industry, the company is seeing encouraging signs. “Generally, Q1 is slightly slower than the rest of the year but at the moment the indications of Q1 are also very good,” he noted.

This optimism is underpinned by what the company believes is not a temporary spike but the start of a sustained replacement-led demand cycle. Agarwal pointed to January’s industry data, where the MHCV segment grew around 27 percent and LCVs over 20 percent as evidence of structural demand.

“We do believe that this is not a short-term blip because of GST. This is a result of overall growth in the consumption economy, which is leading to higher freight demand and higher freight rates,” he said. India’s truck fleet age is currently at an all-time high and the improved freight environment appears to have triggered a long-awaited replacement cycle.

“If the industry was waiting for some kind of a trigger to start this new replacement cycle, we believe that has now happened, and therefore it will go for a longer run,” Agarwal said. A major part of Ashok Leyland’s MHCV strategy lies in the launch of Hippo and Taurus, developed over the past couple of years.

“These products truly represent best-in-class performance and reliability,” Agarwal said. Both trucks deliver peak torque of around 1,600 Nm, among the best in the category and use upgraded driveline aggregates to improve reliability in tough applications such as tippers.

On the tractor side, the focus is on improving turnaround time for customers through higher power and heavy-duty aggregates. “The whole range will be launched between now and April and thereafter we will use the full potential of these products,” he added.

EV demand rising

Despite reports of a slowdown in staff and school bus segments, Ashok Leyland says its order book remains strong across both conventional and electric buses. “Our bus order book is very healthy and very strong at the moment,” Hinduja said.

He noted that the new Lucknow greenfield plant, completed in a record 14 months, has come at the right time to support increased bus demand. The plant is primarily focused on EVs, with phase one capacity of 2,500 units, scalable to 5,000 units.

Agarwal attributed recent industry blips in bus growth to timing issues in STU orders rather than any fundamental demand weakness. “The sentiment is very, very positive even in the staff and school sectors,” he said. Agarwal emphasised that electrification will not be uniform across segments.

“Buses are seeing a huge spike in government purchases. We are very, very optimistic about the electric bus business,” he said. Switch, the company’s EV arm, is fully ready with products for India and overseas markets. A manufacturing base for EV buses is also being set up at the RAK plant, expected to be operational in about 12 months.

Electrification is also expected to gain traction in the 2–4 tonne and intermediate CV categories, where Ashok Leyland was among the first to launch electric offerings. While Ashok Leyland did not directly win tenders in the last 10,000-bus PM e-Bus Sewa round, Switch secured significant orders through an infrastructure partner. Both entities plan to participate in upcoming tenders.

The government’s plan to induct over 50,000 electric buses into STU fleets over the next four to five years is seen as a major opportunity. Switch has already exported EV buses to Mauritius and received an order for 45 buses from Bhutan, underlining its growing international footprint.

Market segments

The company acknowledged some commodity cost pressure in recent months, driven not by steel but by spikes in certain precious metals. This has pushed up Q3 material costs sequentially.

Hinduja expects this pressure to ease within three to four months. Meanwhile, the company is doubling down on efficiency, waste reduction and cost control. Ashok Leyland will close the year with capex of around INR 10–11 billion and plans to invest about INR 10 billion annually over the next two years towards its Centre of Excellence and factory projects.

Agarwal said the company has also consciously grown non-domestic CV businesses including industrial engines, power solutions, defence and spares to reduce dependence on domestic MHCV volumes. “This reduces our break-even point from MHCV domestic sales and gives a lot of strength to the company for future growth,” he said.

Despite being a late entrant in LCVs, Ashok Leyland now holds around 12 percent market share and insists it will not chase growth through discounting. “Our industry is basically TCO-focused. If the customer sees extra value, there is no hesitation in paying more,” Agarwal said, pointing to digitisation, AI-led service initiatives, reliability and turnaround time as key differentiators.

For Ashok Leyland, the strategy is clear with differentiated products, strong service, rising exports, EV readiness and a favourable domestic cycle, all converging as it prepares for the next phase of commercial vehicle growth.

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Chennai-headquartered commercial vehicle major Ashok Leyland has reported its financial results for Q3 FY2026, achieving its best-ever performance for the period.

The company reported a record INR 115.34 billion in revenue, up 22 percent YoY, as compared to INR 94.79 billion for the same period last year. EBITDA margin at 13.3 percent came at INR 15.35 billion, as against 12.8 percent at INR 12.11 billion, clocking a growth of 27 percent YoY. This also marked the 12 consecutive quarter of achieving double-digit EBITDA growth.

Net profit at INR 7.96 billion, grew by 4 percent YoY, which also includes a one-time charge of INR 3.08 billion towards the new labour code.

During the quarter, the company sold 32,929 M&HCVs, up 23 percent YoY and 20,518 LCVs, up 30 percent YoY. Exports came at 4,965 units, as against 4,151 units last year. This translates to a 30 percent market share in the M&HCV segment, and 40 percent in the Bus segment.

Ashok Leyland reported net cash of INR 26.19 billion at the end of Q3 FY2026, as against INR 9.58 billion last year.

The company also recently reintroduced the all-new Hippo and Taurus product range in the tipper and tractor-trailer segments.  

Dheeraj Hinduja, Executive Chairman, Ashok Leyland, said, “Market conditions continue to be favourable, and we are optimistic that this strength will sustain in the medium term across all our businesses, including MHCV, LCV, and Defence. Our strong and consistent growth in volumes and profitability underscores the competitiveness of our portfolio, which delivers superior performance and customer value, reinforced by deep and effective customer engagement across all segments. We are executing a structured pipeline of product introductions across conventional and alternative propulsion platforms to further strengthen our leadership in the domestic market and accelerate our expansion in international markets. Our electric vehicle arm, Switch, has a healthy order book and a well-defined product roadmap. It has started delivering buses in International markets and has achieved positive EBITDA and PAT over the first nine months.”

Shenu Agarwal, Managing Director & CEO, Ashok Leyland, added, “The GST rationalisation has not just lowered prices, but also brought a fillip to the overall freight demand, triggering fresh replacement cycle in the CV industry. With supportive macroeconomic fundamentals and improving customer sentiment, we remain confident about the medium to long-term growth prospects of the CV industry. Our strategy continues to be anchored in delivering profitable growth through sustained product premiumisation, structural cost competitiveness, wider service coverage, and continued focus to grow non-CV businesses. “

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PT Tata Motors Distribusi Indonesia, a subsidiary of Tata Motors, has entered into an agreement to supply 70,000 vehicles for deployment in Indonesia. The fleet will support agricultural activities, rural logistics and regional goods movement.

The order consists of 35,000 units of the Yodha pick-up and 35,000 units of the Ultra T.7 truck. These vehicles will be delivered to PT Agrinas Pangan Nusantara, an Indonesian state-owned enterprise tasked with modernising agricultural supply chains and advancing food security.

The vehicles are part of the Koperasi Desa and Kelurahan Merah Putih Project, a strategic initiative aimed at strengthening rural connectivity and economic resilience in Indonesia. The fleet will be distributed through agricultural cooperatives under a phased delivery programme to ensure integration into the national logistics network.

Asif Shamim, Director, PT Tata Motors Distribusi Indonesia, said, “This order reflects the continued acceptance of Indian commercial vehicles in international markets and the confidence of customers in their ability to operate reliably across diverse conditions. The Tata Yodha and the Ultra T.7 are designed for sustained performance, high uptime and efficient operating economics. Their deployment will support agricultural logistics in Indonesia by improving connectivity, enabling more efficient movement of goods across rural and regional networks. We remain committed to expanding the global footprint of Indian mobility solutions through vehicles and offerings that combine scale, reliability and sustained value creation for our customers.”

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Switch Mobility, the electric vehicle arm of the Hinduja Group, has flagged off 272 units of its EiV12 low-floor bus in New Delhi. The deployment is part of a 950-bus contract awarded under the Convergence Energy Services (CESL) tender.

The event, held at Ramlila Maidan, was led by the Chief Minister of Delhi, Rekha Gupta, alongside transport officials and representatives from the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC). The rollout aligns with the Government of India’s targets for emission-free and accessible public transport.

The 950 e-buses will be stationed at depots across the capital, including Okhla Srinivas Puri, Grand Trunk Road, and Rajghat. Ohm Global Mobility will manage the operational deployment and maintenance of the fleet.

The vehicles are manufactured at Switch Mobility's facility in Tamil Nadu. The project aims to increase the volume of electric buses in operation in Delhi to reduce CO2 emissions and improve urban air quality.

The Switch EiV12 is designed for urban transit with a focus on accessibility and stability. It gets ultra-low entry with kneeling and tilting functions to assist boarding. Floor-mounted batteries for stability and rear-mounted ports supporting dual-gun fast charging.

It features manual/automated wheelchair ramps for passengers with special needs, seniors and parents with prams. The Switch iON system monitors 140 parameters with 80 alerts to track vehicle health and performance.

Ganesh Mani, Chief Executive Officer of Switch Mobility, said, "The flag-off of over 200 Switch EiV12 Low Floor Buses electric buses in partnership with CESL is a significant milestone in strengthening Delhi's electric public transport ecosystem. Switch Mobility is committed to collaborating with city transport authorities to deliver dependable, high-performance electric buses that can scale rapidly. Deployments like these demonstrate how electric mobility can be seamlessly integrated into urban operations while delivering tangible benefits in emissions reduction and passenger experience."

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