Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

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Bombay Logistics has flagged off a fleet of liquefied natural gas heavy-duty trucks manufactured by Blue Energy Motors for commercial operations in Karnataka. The vehicles will operate in the Toranagallu region to support industrial freight transport for JSW Steel.

The LNG trucks are said to offer up to 20 percent higher fuel efficiency compared to conventional fuel equivalents, reducing carbon intensity across long-haul freight operations.

Thimmaraj Kakarla, Managing Partner, Bombay Logistics, said, “For us, the move to LNG is about finding a practical solution that works on the road and makes commercial sense. The performance and fuel efficiency of the Blue Energy Motors trucks were important considerations, while the Blue Energy Motors team’s support throughout the deployment, from vehicle handover and route planning to on-ground assistance, made the transition seamless. As these trucks begin operations for JSW Steel, we see this as a meaningful step towards improving operating efficiency while reducing the carbon footprint of our freight movement.”

Anand Mimani, CEO of EV and New Energy, Blue Energy Motors, said, “We are pleased to support Bombay Logistics in deploying our LNG trucks for demanding industrial operations. For us, the priority is simple: deliver the performance and reliability the customer needs while making the shift to cleaner freight practical.”

At present, Blue Energy Motors maintains an operational fleet of over 1,400 alternative-fuel trucks across Indian freight corridors. The company says these vehicles have recorded over 100 million kilometres and reduced carbon dioxide emissions by more than 30,000 tonnes.

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Ashok Leyland’s battery pack manufacturing plans are designed to boost vehicle integration and open new revenue streams, not just cut costs or meet local-sourcing rules, said Chief Executive Officer Shenu Agarwal during the company’s Q1 FY27 financial results announcement.

The Hinduja Group-controlled truckmaker is building a battery pack plant in Tamil Nadu, with production slated to start in 2027. The facility, located in the SIPCOT Pillaipakkam Industrial Park near Chennai, forms the first phase of a broader INR 75 billion commitment by the group.

Speaking to Motoring Trends on the same, Agarwal's said, “Don't look at the battery pack business just from a cost perspective or localisation perspective. The company will meet local-content requirements to the extent that we can make it more efficient.”

He added that the company is designing its own battery packs and battery management systems in-house, which will let the company integrate it better into its vehicles and create a total cost of ownership advantage for the customer.

The strategy also extends beyond Ashok Leyland's own line-up. “We are also evaluating how to supply the solutions to other automotive players,” Agarwal said, while pointing to rising demand for battery energy storage systems as a separate growth avenue.

“This battery pack business has multiple dimensions,” he noted, adding that the initiative is meant to enhance value for truck and bus customers rather than serve as a narrow cost play.

Earnings call

Ashok Leyland posted a record first quarter with strong domestic commercial-vehicle demand helping the automaker withstand disruptions in international markets and broader geo-political uncertainty.

The company achieved its highest-ever first-quarter revenue, profit before tax and net profit, while its cash position improved by INR 14.31 billion from a year earlier, net of dividend, capital expenditure and investments in group companies, Executive Chairman Dheeraj Hinduja said.

“The business environment tested the robustness of our processes and resilience of our teams and partners. Ashok Leyland has come out stronger, achieving new peaks,” Hinduja said.

Domestic commercial-vehicle industry volumes grew in double digits during the quarter with Ashok Leyland's medium and heavy commercial vehicle truck volumes rising 15 percent from a year earlier.

Domestic light commercial vehicle volumes reached a record 18,874 units, while the company’s overall commercial-vehicle volumes increased 10 percent year-on-year, Hinduja said.

The company also maintained its 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit EBITDA margin underscoring its focus on profitable growth, he said.

Non-commercial vehicle businesses including aftermarket, engines and defence also reported healthy performance, Hinduja said. The company continued to invest in products and manufacturing capabilities including the launch of multi-axle trucks equipped with air suspension, which offers higher payload and lower TCO.

Ashok Leyland also launched a 12-meter fuel-cell bus, which Hinduja described as an industry first.

Its electric mobility subsidiary Switch India recently secured an order for 650 electric buses, while the group’s financing businesses, Hinduja Leyland Finance and Hinduja Finance, reported assets-under-management growth of 20 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

The company remains cautious about global uncertainties but is confident of navigating them on the back of the stronger foundation built in recent years, Hinduja said.

“It was satisfying to see the company deliver in the face of challenges presented by global uncertainties. Our performance demonstrated that the business model we have developed can absorb shocks,” he said.

“We remain cautious of global uncertainties but we are confident of navigating these based on the strong foundation we have built over the last few years,” Hinduja added.

The comments come as Ashok Leyland's international commercial-vehicle volumes fell to 2,461 units in the first quarter from 3,011 a year earlier, primarily because of the crisis in West Asia. Growth in South Asia and Africa partly offset the decline with the company seeing stronger momentum from June.

Hinduja said the company’s domestic performance demonstrates the strength of India's commercial-vehicle market and gives it confidence in its ability to sustain growth despite external volatility.

Ashok Leyland’s battery strategy comes as the company strengthens its portfolio amid robust domestic demand and global uncertainty. By developing battery packs and management systems in-house, the automaker aims to capture more value across the electric-vehicle ecosystem, while exploring external customers and energy-storage applications as additional growth opportunities beyond its core vehicle business.

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Mahindra Truck and Bus, a division of the Mahindra Group, has introduced the Mahindra Blazo i-TRK heavy commercial vehicle range in India.

The vehicle range features Mahindra's 320hp mPOWER engine and the iMAXX 2.0 fleet telematics platform.

The company says the new Blazo i-TRK delivers up to 10 percent higher fuel efficiency compared to previous models. Mahindra has also introduced a 48-hour uptime guarantee for the vehicle range, offering a compensation scheme of INR 10,000 per day in cases where service timelines are not met.

The telematics platform connects vehicle systems to provide fleet operators with operational data, remote monitoring capabilities and maintenance management tools. The integration of connected vehicle technology is intended to support freight movement and fleet productivity across Indian transport routes.

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Eicher Trucks & Buses, a division of VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV), has inaugurated its 11^th Regional Competence Development Centre (RCDC) at Deenbandhu Chhotu Ram University of Science and Technology (DCRUST) in Murthal, Haryana. The facility was inaugurated by the Chief Minister of Haryana, Nayab Singh Saini.

The centre was established in collaboration with DCRUST to provide technical instruction and skill training in commercial vehicle technologies. It covers 7,900 square feet and contains classrooms, workshops, vehicle practice bays, diagnostic tools and training platforms for light, medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. It features dynamic driveline models, engine sections, electrical laboratories, a vehicle inspection pit and VECV's mobile training unit.

S S Gill, Chief Commercial Officer, VE Commercial Vehicles, said, “We are grateful to the Chief Minister of Haryana Nayab Singh Saini, the Government of Haryana and our partner, DCRUST, for their support in making this Regional Competence Development Centre a reality. At Eicher, we believe the future of the commercial vehicle industry will be shaped as much by skilled people as by advanced technologies. Through this collaboration, we are creating a strong foundation for future-ready talent and contributing to a resilient mobility ecosystem.”

Sumit Dewan, Senior Vice-President, VE Commercial Vehicles, said, "Through our partnership with DCRUST, we are creating a platform that enables students, faculty and dealership professionals to gain hands-on exposure to advanced commercial vehicle technologies and evolving industry practices. Students from the centre will have the opportunity to serve in their communities through Eicher’s nationwide network of dealerships across Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh. The centre will strengthen technical capability across our service network, enhancing customer experience through improved vehicle uptime and operational efficiency.”

The curriculum covers areas including electric vehicles, mechatronics, powertrains, automated transmissions, vehicle electronics, diagnostics, telematics, emission control systems, driver assistance systems and alternative fuels such as CNG and LNG.

The Murthal facility will support the training needs of nearly 50 dealerships across Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh. Approximately 150 engineering students from DCRUST will use the facility annually, while the mobile training initiative is expected to reach 600 students per year across technical institutions in the region.

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