The Indian MHCV Outlook

The Indian MHCV Outlook

Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

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Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

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Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

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Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

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Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

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Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

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Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

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Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

Fresh Bus Partners Exponent Energy For Rapid-Charging Intercity Fleet

Fresh Bus - Exponent

Fresh Bus has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Exponent Energy to deploy 250 electric intercity buses across India. The agreement introduces a rapid-charging platform designed to support long-distance travel, including the deployment of a sleeper electric vehicle (EV) fleet. The partnership will initially focus on the Hyderabad–Bengaluru corridor before expanding to other regions.

The collaboration addresses the range limitations traditionally associated with electric buses. Standard intercity EVs often require large battery packs or lengthy charging stops to cover distances beyond 350 km. The new system utilises Exponent Energy’s 1.5 MW infrastructure to provide 15-minute rapid charging during transit. This allows vehicles to operate on routes up to 1,000 km by recharging during highway stops, mimicking the operational patterns of diesel vehicles.

By using rapid-charging technology instead of larger batteries, the companies aim to reduce vehicle weight and lower the total cost of ownership. The megawatt-scale charging stations are positioned to enable faster turnaround times and higher fleet utilisation. This infrastructure supports the goal of Fresh Bus to operate 10,000 electric buses and capture 10 percent of the Indian intercity market.

The technology was developed in India and is intended to prove the viability of long-haul electrification for the domestic transportation sector. The partners spent two years on joint engineering to ensure the platform could meet the demands of India’s highway network and climate conditions.

Sudhakar Chirra, Founder & CEO, Fresh Bus, said, "This is a systems-level solution built for real-world intercity operations. Fast charging is inherently more efficient than simply adding oversized batteries. After two years of close collaboration and rigorous joint engineering with Exponent Energy, we’re ready to deploy at scale. We are not merely adopting EVs; we are co-designing a new paradigm for intercity travel that is faster, more reliable, and ultimately, more passenger-centric, directly addressing the myth that electric buses cannot reliably conquer India’s vast intercity network."

Arun Vinayak, Founder & CEO, Exponent Energy, said, “Rapid charging truly unlocks the opportunity to replace diesel buses with EVs on long-haul routes. A 15-minute quick charge every 300 km during highway pitstops allows for diesel vehicle-like operations with all the benefits of EVs to the fleet operator, the passengers and the climate. We are proud to have developed the entire 1.5MW charging capability and rapid charging technology in India and we are pleased to be working with Fresh Bus to co-design the ecosystem. Together, we’re putting India in pole position when it comes to long-haul electrification globally.”

Tata Motors Launches Transformative New Lineup Of Commercial Vehicles

Tata Motors Launches Transformative New Lineup Of Commercial Vehicles

Tata Motors has unveiled a transformative new lineup of commercial vehicles, fundamentally redefining standards across safety, profitability and sustainability in Indian trucking. The launch encompasses an extensive portfolio of 17 trucks from 7 to 55 tonnes, featuring the all-new Azura series, significant upgrades to the Prima, Signa and Ultra platforms and a comprehensive electric range under the Tata Trucks.ev brand.

A cornerstone of this launch is the introduction of the Azura, a series engineered for the intermediate and light commercial vehicle segment. Designed to boost productivity and driver comfort, it features a new 3.6-litre diesel engine noted for its performance and efficiency. Available in 7- to 19-tonne variants, the Azura caters to a wide spectrum of logistical needs, including e-commerce, regional distribution and construction transport.

Safety receives unprecedented focus across the entire portfolio, with every truck now engineered to meet stringent global ECE R29 03 crash standards. This commitment extends to cabins built for frontal, rollover and side-impact protection, integrated with up to 23 advanced active safety features such as collision mitigation systems. Enhanced by real-time monitoring via the connected Fleet Edge platform, this initiative positions Tata Motors as the sole Indian manufacturer to achieve this international safety benchmark.

Simultaneously, the upgrades are meticulously crafted to enhance transporter profitability. Engineering refinements have increased payload capacity by up to 1.8 tonnes, while drivetrain improvements, including an advanced Cummins engine, deliver up to seven percent greater fuel efficiency. This drive for lower total cost of ownership is supported by digital tools like Fleet Edge Priority, which provides predictive analytics and real-time vehicle health insights to optimise fleet utilisation and uptime.

Propelling the industry towards sustainable logistics, Tata Motors also debuts its Tata Trucks.ev portfolio. Based on a new modular electric architecture, it includes models from 7 to 55 tonnes for diverse applications. The Ultra EV range leads in the light commercial segment, while the powerful Prima E.55S prime mover and the robust Prima E.28K tipper set new benchmarks for heavy-duty electric performance in port, mining and construction operations. Developed with deep localisation of key components and supported by a growing charging and financing ecosystem, these vehicles aim to make electric trucking both accessible and reliable for Indian businesses.

Beyond the vehicles themselves, customers benefit from Tata Motors' holistic Sampoorna Seva 2.0 support ecosystem. This includes an extensive service network, assured parts availability, round-the-clock assistance and tailored financing solutions, collectively designed to ensure complete operational peace of mind for fleet operators.

Girish Wagh, MD & CEO, Tata Motors Ltd., said, “India’s trucking landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation, driven by progressive national policies, modern infrastructure and the rising demand for safer, cleaner and more efficient logistics. Tata Motors has always led the way in setting benchmarks that shape the industry’s future. With the introduction of our next-generation portfolio – including the all-new Azura series, two advanced high-efficiency powertrains, India’s widest range of zero-emission electric trucks and tippers on our new I-MOEV architecture, significant upgrades to European standard cabins and industry-leading safety features, increased payload and fuel efficiency, all seamlessly integrated with Fleet Edge digital services, we are advancing this legacy. Guided by ‘Better Always’ philosophy, our relentless drive for innovation, deep commitment to localisation and unwavering focus on customer success embody the vision of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, enhancing India’s self-reliance and aspiration to lead in sustainable mobility.”

MAN Truck & Bus And TIP Group Ink EUR 160 Million Framework Agreement For 1,800 CVs

MAN Truck & Bus - TIP Group

MAN Truck & Bus and TIP Group have entered into a framework agreement for the delivery of up to 600 commercial vehicles annually over the next three years. The contract includes up to 1,800 units across all weight classes, ranging from 7.5 to 42 tonnes and covers operations in 18 European countries. The agreement, which includes both diesel and battery-electric trucks, has a total order value of up to EUR 160 million.

The diesel vehicles supplied will feature the PowerLion drivetrain, incorporating the D30 engine and TipMatic-14 transmission. According to the automaker, these aerodynamic updates reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by up to 5 percent compared to previous models. In the electric segment, the contract includes the eTGL, eTGX and eTGS models. Depending on battery configuration, these vehicles offer claimed ranges between 310 km and 830 km.

The electric heavy-duty models are equipped with Combined Charging System (CCS) connections supporting up to 375 kW. From mid-2026, these models will support megawatt charging up to 750 kW. MAN produces both drive types on a single assembly line at its Munich plant to manage market demand and production costs.

TIP Group, which manages a fleet of over 90,000 assets, will utilise MAN service contracts to manage maintenance and repairs across its European network. These contracts provide fixed monthly rates to ensure cost transparency and vehicle uptime for rental customers.

Friedrich Baumann, Executive Board Member for Sales & Customer Solutions, MAN Truck & Bus, said, “With the new framework agreement, MAN Truck & Bus and TIP Group are sending a strong signal for the future of freight transport. We are pleased to accompany TIP as an important partner on the path to sustainable logistics – with efficient diesel trucks and innovative battery-electric vehicles. This agreement underscores the trust in our products and services and shows how we are jointly driving the transformation of the industry forward.”

Arjen Kraaij, CEO, TIP Group, said, “Supporting customers through the transition means offering the right solutions at the right time. By working closely with partners like MAN, we can expand our fleet with both highly efficient diesel trucks and electric trucks, giving operators practical choices that balance performance, cost efficiency and sustainability.”

Gulf Oil Lubricants Inks Strategic Partnerships With ACE, Ammann India And XCMG

Gulf Oil

Gulf Oil Lubricants India has established strategic alliances with three construction equipment manufacturers – ACE (Action Construction Equipment), Ammann India and XCMG. These agreements are intended to expand the company’s presence in the infrastructure segment by providing equipment-specific lubricants for the Indian market.

As part of the collaboration with ACE, Gulf has added new products to the ACE Genuine Oil range, covering machinery such as cranes, backhoe loaders, motor graders and tractors. For Ammann India, which holds a 60 percent market share in asphalt mixing plants, Gulf will serve as the official partner for its entire equipment range. This includes the development of formulations for future machinery. Additionally, Gulf will launch branded lubricants for XCMG to support its range of construction equipment within India.

Alongside these alliances, Gulf has introduced a range of specialised products including fire-resistant hydraulic oil, zinc-free hydraulic oil and CEV V diesel engine oil. These formulations are engineered to meet the requirements of new-generation equipment while improving uptime and reducing the total cost of ownership for contractors.

The company currently manages over 50 OEM associations across the automotive, industrial, and construction sectors. These partnerships are a component of Gulf’s strategy to provide technical services and product selection tailored to Indian operating environments.

Ravi Chawla, Managing Director & CEO, Gulf Oil Lubricants India, said, “Infrastructure has been a strategic focus area for Gulf for over 15 years, and these partnerships mark a significant step forward in strengthening our presence in this growing sector. By working closely with leading OEMs like ACE, Ammann, and XCMG, among others, we are able to deliver application-specific, future-ready lubricant solutions for new generation equipments that help customers improve equipment reliability, reduce downtime, and optimise total cost of ownership. We firmly believe that long-term value is built through strong, enduring partnerships.”