Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

Mumbai-headquartered automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has announced an ambitious growth plan for its commercial vehicle (CV) business, thanks to the recent strategic acquisition of a majority stake in SML Isuzu. The company aims to leverage this acquisition to accelerate its ‘Deliver Scale’ strategy across segments where it believes it has a strong ‘right to win.’

Dr Anish Shah, Managing Director and CEO, Mahindra Group, emphasised that the group’s disciplined focus on capital allocation remains intact. "We have seen significant growth across several businesses, and now, as we enter our third phase, the focus is on delivering scale," he said.

Shah also noted that Mahindra has turned around its CV business, once under scrutiny five years ago, and sees the acquisition of SML Isuzu as a strategic opportunity to cement its position further.

Today, Mahindra is the market leader in SUVs with a 23 percent market share and ranks fifth in the CV segment above 3.5 tonnes with a 3 percent share. Through the acquisition, Mahindra aims to become a more formidable player in the CV space.

"We are targeting a combined market share of 10-12 percent by FY2031 and over 20 percent by FY2036," said Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO – Auto and Farm Sectors, Mahindra & Mahindra. He acknowledged that Mahindra’s CV share, which stood at around 4-5 percent in FY2020, had dropped due to the impact of Covid-19. However, with renewed focus, especially in the LCV and ILCV segments, Mahindra is planning an aggressive recovery.

SML Isuzu brings strength in the intermediate LCV bus segment, holding a 16 percent market share. Mahindra expects that, combined, they could command a 21 percent share. "The synergies are substantial across cost structures, platforms, aggregates, supplier networks, and operations," Jejurikar added.

Growth, Not Cost-Cutting

Mahindra leaders were clear that the SML Isuzu acquisition is not about cost-cutting, but about building scale. "This deal is about growth, not about taking costs out," stressed Amarjyoti Barua, Chief Financial Officer, Mahindra Group. He highlighted that SML Isuzu will remain a separately listed entity and that Mahindra has no plans to rebrand it under the Swaraj name, even though it sees potential for the Swaraj brand in certain export markets.

Financially, Mahindra believes the deal makes strategic sense. Shah pointed out that the SML Isuzu business will be self-sustaining in generating cash for future investments.

The company sees SML Isuzu's operations as a ‘well-run and frugal factory,’ with most future investments primarily required to ramp up capacity.

Vinod Sahay, President - Aerospace & Defence, Trucks, Buses & CE, Mahindra, underlined how the product portfolios of Mahindra and SML Isuzu complement each other. SML Isuzu, for instance, is at an advanced stage in developing electric buses for school, staff and executive coach applications, an area where Mahindra's electrification expertise can add substantial value.

Sahay further highlighted how combining Mahindra and SML Isuzu’s supplier ecosystems will strengthen bargaining power, especially in critical areas like tyres, batteries and key aggregates. While Mahindra boasts strong sourcing power in tyres and batteries, SML Isuzu has an edge in CV parts.

Product synergy is another opportunity. SML’s strong CNG product line and Mahindra’s newer Furio and Cruzio models – offering 8-10 percent better fuel efficiency – will allow the combined business to offer compelling choices to customers across the LCV, ILCV and M&HCV categories.

With over 200 dealers and 400 touchpoints between them, Mahindra plans to optimise and expand network coverage for a wider reach.

While Mahindra is bullish on growth, Shah made it clear that there are no immediate plans for further acquisitions. "Now the business must prove itself," he said, reiterating the company’s strategic belief in building businesses that have a clear right to win, strong financial metrics and differentiated products.

Looking ahead, Mahindra is betting that a stable yet evolving CV market – especially in buses and light trucks, which the management stated will provide the runway needed for long-term growth, as the group consolidates its position as a dominant player across automotive categories.

Mumbai-based automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has announced a bold move to strengthen its position in the commercial vehicle (CV) market with an agreement to acquire a 58.96 percent stake in SML Isuzu (SML) at INR 650 per share, representing an investment of INR 5.55 billion.

Following the acquisition, Mahindra will also launch a mandatory open offer to acquire up to an additional 26 percent stake from public shareholders, in compliance with SEBI's Takeover Regulations.

This strategic acquisition marks a major step forward in Mahindra’s ambition to expand its footprint in the >3.5-tonne CV segment. At present, Mahindra holds a modest 3 percent market share in this space, compared to its dominant 52 percent share in the <3.5-tonne light commercial vehicle (LCV) market. With the addition of SML’s capabilities and brand strength, Mahindra expects to immediately double its market share to 6 percent, and is aiming for 10–12 percent by FY2031 and over 20 percent by FY2036.

Founded in 1983, SML Isuzu is a listed company with a all-India presence and a strong legacy in the trucks and buses segment. It holds a leading 16 percent market share in the Intermediate Light Commercial Vehicle (ILCV) buses category. For FY2024, SML reported operating revenue of INR 21.96 billion and an EBITDA of INR 1.79 billion, showcasing profitable operations, frugal manufacturing and strong engineering capabilities.

Mahindra sees the acquisition as an opportunity to unlock significant value through synergies across cost optimisation, network expansion, brand integration, manufacturing efficiency, talent pool strengthening and complementary product portfolios. Mahindra states that its Trucks and Buses Division has already made notable advances in technology, design and innovation by leveraging its broader automotive capabilities – strengths that will be further enhanced through this deal.

The transaction structure involves Mahindra acquiring the entire 43.96 percent stake held by Sumitomo Corporation, the current promoter of SML, as well as a 15 percent stake from Isuzu Motors.

Dr Anish Shah, Group CEO & MD, Mahindra Group, said: “The acquisition of SML Isuzu marks a significant milestone in Mahindra Group’s vision of delivering 5x growth in our emerging businesses. This acquisition is aligned with our capital allocation strategy for investing in high-potential growth areas that have a strong right to win and have demonstrated operational excellence.”

Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO, Auto and Farm Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra, added, “SML brings a strong legacy, a loyal customer base and a credible product portfolio that complements Mahindra’s existing offerings in the trucks and buses segment. This acquisition is a pivotal step toward our ambition to become a full-range, formidable player in commercial vehicles by enhancing market coverage, unlocking operating leverage through platform consolidation, a unified supplier and network base, and better plant utilisation. Together, we are well-positioned to scale rapidly and drive profitable growth.”

In what may come as a welcome push for road safety in India, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) plans to launch a new safety assessment rating for trucks and commercial vehicles on the lines of the Bharat New Car Assessment Program (BNCAP).

The announcement was made by Nitin Gadkari, Union Minister of Road Transport & Highways, while inaugurating a two-day workshop of Vehicle and Fleet safety jointly organised by the Global New Car Assessment Program (GNCAP) and the Institute of Road Traffic Education (IRTE).

“The idea is to encourage manufacturers to improve the production quality, making vehicles safer. Similarly, the government is already working on standards and a safety assessment system for battery-operated e-rikshaws in the country, as they suffer from safety issues. The safety improvement in e-rickshaws will improve their quality and generate more employment. India accounts for the highest number of fatal road accidents with 4.8 lakh road crashes each year resulting in 1.8 lakh deaths. The government’s top priority is on road safety, expansion of safe highways and vehicle safety and bolstering electric vehicles. The ministry is also working on reducing logistics cost to 9 percent in the next couple of years from the present 14-16 percent, as the automobile industry plays a key role in India’s economic growth.”

He further added that MoRTH was now also working on a law to determine the working hours for truck drivers. At present, many truckers continue to drive vehicles for 13-14 hours a day, as the country is facing a shortage of truck drivers.

The government also plans to set up 32 state-of-the-art driving institutes across the country. Air conditioning of driver compartments has already been made mandatory by the ministry. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) to assist drivers has also been made mandatory”, the minister added.

It was just a few days back government introduced road safety as part of the school curriculum for students of classes 1-12, the modules are expected to be introduced in the current academic year.

David Ward, President Emeritus, Global NCAP, said, “Consumers in India with most vehicles having GNCAP and BNCAP assessment ratings have a better choice of safer vehicles. It is a good moment towards the UN objective of road safety by 2030.”

Dr Rohit Baluja, President, IRTE, added, “The two-day workshop will review progress in vehicle safety worldwide and in India since 2000 and the priority actions needed to achieve further improvements by 2030 and beyond. In particular, the meeting will examine efforts to improve automobile safety worldwide by reviewing the progress made by the G20 major economies, including India, to implement the Global Plan vehicle safety recommendations and feature special sessions on fleet and motorcycle safety.”

Montra Electric’s e-SCV (small commercial vehicles) division, Tivolt Electric Vehicles has inaugurated its first e-SCV dealership in Jaipur, Rajasthan, which also is its first in the region.

The new channel partner Ensol Infratech has a state-of-the-art 3S (sales, service, spares and charging) facility to provide a comprehensive buying and aftersales support.

The dealership was inaugurated by Jalaj Gupta, Managing Director, TI Clean Mobility (Montra Electric) and Arun Sharma, Managing Director, Ensol Infratech, in presence of Saju Nair, CEO, Tivolt Electric vehicles, Sunil Kataria, Director, Ensol Infratech and key stakeholders, including dealers, customers, suppliers and other guests.

With this Montra Electric’s Eviator e-SCV will be available in Jaipur. It comes with a claimed certified range of 245 km and a real-world range of 170 km, 80 kW motor and an 300 Nm torque. The company currently offers an extended warranty of up to 7 years or 2.5 lakh km.

Jalaj Gupta, said, “Montra Electric has been at the forefront of India’s EV transformation, and we are excited to inaugurate our first dealership in the state of Rajasthan. Eviator is India’s first TRU-EV, setting a new benchmark in mid-mile and last-mile mobility with its advanced design, powerful performance, and exceptional durability. The launch of this dealership facility is a testament to our vision of delivering cutting-edge, high-performance e-SCV in the region.”

Saju Nair, added, “Rajasthan is an important market for us, and we are thrilled to mark our entry into the state with our first dealership in Jaipur. At Montra Electric, we are driven by a strong commitment to innovation and sustainability in clean mobility. This launch is a significant milestone in our journey, enabling us to get closer to our customers and deliver high-performance electric small commercial vehicles (e-SCVs) that meet their evolving needs. Our partnership with Ensol Infratech further strengthens our ability to provide customised solutions and outstanding service across the region.”

Arun Sharma, shared, “We are delighted to join hands with Montra Electric in setting up this new dealership. This collaboration marks a significant step in strengthening Montra Electric’s footprint as a leading EV brand in the region, while improving customer access to dependable, high-performance electric small commercial vehicles. Together, we look forward to expanding our reach and delivering tailored mobility solutions that cater to the evolving transportation needs of our customers.”