Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

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Electric commercial vehicle leasing platform DRIVN and private intercity bus operator Prasanna Purple Mobility Solutions, operating as Purple Bus, have expanded their electric fleet agreement to 276 buses.

The agreement increases the initial commitment of 100 electric buses, utilising an operating lease model and fleet management software.

The initial deployment covered intercity routes in Western and Southern India, including the Mumbai–Pune, Bengaluru–Chennai and Hyderabad–Vijayawada corridors. The expanded fleet under the Letter of Intent will cover additional routes, including Nagpur–Chandrapur, Nagpur–Amravati and Bengaluru–Tirupati.

DRIVN will supply asset financing, leasing, charging infrastructure management, real-time battery diagnostics and route performance analytics to support the deployment.

Alpna Jain, Co-Founder and Chief Business Officer, DRIVN, said, "Expanding our partnership with Purple Bus marks an important milestone for us at DRIVN. Increasing the initial agreement from 100 buses to a commitment of 276 reflects the strength of the relationship we have built with the team. Our focus is to simplify the transition to electric commercial vehicles by bringing together the financing, vehicles and tech capabilities operators need to run their fleets effectively. We look forward to continuing our work with Purple Bus as its requirements evolve."

Saurabh P Patwardhan, Director, Purple Bus, said, "Our experience with the initial deployment has reinforced a key learning: scaling electric mobility requires not only putting more electric buses on the road, but also building the right ecosystem around them. A nearly three-fold growth in the commitment from our partner reflects our confidence in that approach and our intention is to make electric mobility a larger part of our operations. DRIVN combines operational expertise with a strong technology platform, using real-time data and insights across routes, vehicles and fleet performance to support smarter deployment. We believe this combination will be critical to scaling electric intercity mobility sustainably and efficiently."

The partnership combines Purple Bus's route operations with DRIVN's leasing and data infrastructure to support the transition to electric intercity passenger transport in India.

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Mumbai-headquartered automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has commenced commercial production and supply of the MAXSEEDER, a precision zero-till, multi-crop seeding machine manufactured under licence from Canadian firm Clean Seed Technologies.

Built at Mahindra's farm machinery plant in Pithampur, Madhya Pradesh, the machinery will launch initially through dealerships in Punjab and Haryana before expanding to other domestic and international agricultural markets.

The MAXSEEDER operates as a tractor-trailed unit compatible with tractors rated at 35 horsepower and above. Engineered for multi-crop seeding across wheat, rice, soybean, maize and cotton, the machine enables direct sowing into paddy residue to eliminate stubble burning.

It features five independent row units with adjustable spacing, multiple metering options and an Electronic Control Unit controlled via a smartphone application to regulate seed and fertiliser dispensing. The unit places urea approximately 1.5 inches below the seed line to improve nutrient uptake and lower input consumption.

Field trials conducted in Punjab and Haryana demonstrated the machine's ability to operate in heavy crop residue with minimal soil disturbance, reducing fuel, labour, and field preparation requirements ahead of planting cycles.

Veejay Nakra, President of the Farm Equipment Business at Mahindra & Mahindra, said, "Mahindra is proud to partner with Clean Seed to deliver sustainable, mechanisation solutions to farmers world over. The patented and innovative ‘zero-till’, multi-crop seeding machine – the MaxSeeder, combined with Mahindra’s world-class manufacturing, ensures benefits for both farmers and the environment. The collaboration also underscores Clean Seed’s confidence in Mahindra’s capabilities and our shared commitment to advancing access to modern farm machinery globally and in India, while showcasing Indian manufacturing excellence on the world stage."

Graeme Lempriere, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Clean Seed Capital Group, said, "Seeing our SMART Seeder MINI-MAX enter production at Mahindra is a proud milestone and a testament to years of innovation, collaboration and belief in our vision of delivering sustainable seeding and planting solutions for farmers in India and around the world. I am deeply impressed by Mahindra's scale and manufacturing capabilities and inspired by the commitment and passion the Mahindra team has brought to this project."

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Chennai-headquartered commercial vehicle manufacturer Ashok Leyland, the flagship company of the Hinduja Group, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Tamilnad Mercantile Bank to provide financing solutions for purchasers of its trucks and buses.

The agreement was executed by Neelakantan, Vice-President of Finance at Ashok Leyland and R. Ananda Ganesan, Executive Vice-President and Country Head of Credit at Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, in the presence of Salee S Nair, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank.

Under the partnership, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank will extend end-to-end vehicle loans with structured repayment schedules across Ashok Leyland's range of light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

The partnership leverages Tamilnad Mercantile Bank's network of over 600 branches, with coverage across rural, semi-urban and commercial hubs in Tamil Nadu and South India. The initiative aims to increase credit accessibility for transport operators, fleet owners, small and medium enterprises and agricultural businesses purchasing commercial vehicles.

K M Balaji, Whole-Time Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ashok Leyland, said, "We are pleased to partner with Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) to provide accessible and convenient financing solutions to our customers. Financing plays an important role in enabling customers to invest in commercial vehicles and grow their businesses. This partnership will further strengthen our customer-centric approach by facilitating greater access to finance for customers purchasing Ashok Leyland trucks and buses. We look forward to a meaningful and long-term association with Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB)."

Madhavi Deshmukh, Senior Vice-President and National Head of Sales for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles, Ashok Leyland, said, "Our customers are at the heart of everything we do, and ensuring easy access to financing is an important part of supporting their business journeys. By joining hands with Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB), we are extending another avenue for customers to access timely financing support. The partnership will help improve vehicle penetration across regions and ensure that customers can benefit from faster turnaround times and tailored financing offerings that suit their operational requirements."

Salee S. Nair, MD and CEO, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, said, "We are delighted to partner with Ashok Leyland, a leading name in India’s commercial vehicle industry. Through this partnership, TMB will offer tailored financing solutions backed by seamless processes and customer-centric service. By leveraging the combined strengths of TMB's robust banking network and Ashok Leyland's extensive market presence, we aim to support business growth and drive greater mobility for transport operators and fleet owners."

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India’s transportation sector recorded growth across vehicle categories in September 2026, driven by festive dispatches and core sector demand, according to the Shriram Mobility Bulletin.

Truck rentals remained stable across key trunk routes, remaining above levels recorded during the same period in the previous year.

The company finds that on a MoM basis, rentals on the Bengaluru–Mumbai–Bengaluru route grew by 1.3 percent, followed by the Delhi–Mumbai–Delhi route at 1.1 percent and the Delhi–Hyderabad–Delhi route at 1 percent.

The YoY perspective showed increases on all monitored routes, led by Delhi–Kolkata–Delhi at 13 percent, Bengaluru–Mumbai–Bengaluru at 11 percent and Kolkata–Guwahati–Kolkata at 10 percent.

Vehicle dispatches reflected sequential expansion in core industries. Construction equipment sales rose 31 percent MoM, earth-moving equipment increased 17 percent and goods carriers grew 13 percent. Passenger cars and two-wheelers each recorded a 4 percent sequential rise, whereas agricultural tractors fell 15 percent and commercial tractors declined 22 percent.

On a YoY basis, maxi cab sales grew 75 percent, three-wheeler goods vehicles rose 63 percent and goods carriers increased 40 percent. Agricultural trailers recorded a year-on-year decline of 27 percent.

Electric vehicle adoption increased across all monitored segments. Electric two-wheelers recorded a 13 percent MoM rise and a 111 percent YoY gain. Electric passenger cars grew 12 percent sequentially and 143 percent YoY, while electric three-wheelers increased 8 percent MoM and 113 percent YoY.

Sudarshan Holla, Joint MD & COO, Commercial Vehicles, Shriram Finance, said, "Firm truck rentals amid festive dispatches, strong two-wheeler demand, accelerating EV adoption, and healthy sales of heavy-duty trucks and construction equipment all point to resilient economic activity. Importantly, the strength seen in commercial vehicles and construction equipment indicates continued momentum in infrastructure and core sectors, reinforcing a positive outlook for the broader economy. Concerns of a potential interest rate increase during the festive season may be a sentiment dampener."

Interestingly, fuel consumption data showed a 2 percent sequential rise in diesel use alongside a 5 percent decline in petrol consumption. On a YoY basis, petrol and diesel consumption increased by 7.2 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. FASTag collections fell 3.9 percent in volume and 1.2 percent in value MoM, though YoY collection value increased by 11 percent.

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