The voice about India’s car market staring at stagnancy is growing amid much selling by foreign investors in the stock market. Auto sticks of OEMs and suppliers have taken a beating lately. The reasons for stock market decline are said to be structural issues as well as geopolitical issues. In other words, they are local as well as global in their nature. The Indian auto industry – as the largest contributor of GST to the exchequer and among the highest contributor to the country's manufacturing GPD – is also quite local and global in its ways of working. 

Like any other developing nation, it is a market where the scope for an increase in automobile population is bright. It is also a market that is beset by structural issues nonetheless. With 34 cars owned per 1,000 people, the country with a population estimated to be 1,463,865,525 in 2025 has ample scope for auto sales growth. 

But as banks struggle for liquidity and a reduction in repo rate by the apex bank fails to reflect in the reduction of loan interest rates or equated monthly instalments, the structural issues facing the automobile industry are too stark to overlook.

Adding to the structural issues are perhaps developments such as the recent announecement by Maharashtra Government to levy six percent motor vehicle tax on premium electric vehicles. The leading industrialised state also has among the highest road toll taxes among other Indian states. The highway network in the state is among the most lacking and unsafe. Most roads in the state have either deteriorated or are under a seemingly unending period of repairs. 

The state government in its 2025 budget has also announced that it has raised the motor vehicle tax by one percentage point on individual-owned non-transport four-wheeler CNG and LPG vehicles. Such vehicles currently attract a seven to nine percent tax depending on their type and price.

While electricity costs have been rising with distribution companies like MSEDCL pushing for a revision in fixed and energy charges for various categories in order to bridge revenue gap, owning electric vehicles and CNG vehicles is becoming costlier though eco-friendlier.

Attracting over 200 percent in taxes, petrol and diesel prices have been at an all-time high. A timely upward revision in toll prices is only adding further to the cost of motoring in a country where close to or more than 50 of the vehicle purchase price amounts to taxes. Spares are also taxed at a hefty 28 percent and the labour costs have steeply risen post Covid-19 pandemic.

With vehicle prices being jacked up by automakers under the pretext of rising input costs by about four to five percent if not more, the Indian auto industry is clearly under pressure to maintain its margins and stay profitable.

Against the operating costs, the foot falls in the showroom are taking longer to realise into actual sales. Discounts are gaining speed and indicative of sales losing stream in some of the segments that were until recently doing very well.

Any excitement about a rebate in Income Tax up to INR 1,200,000 – it takes over INR 1,000,000 to purchase a decent car in India today – seeming to have faded into thin air, the talk about government announced a reduction in GST taxes has gained speed. When it would actually come into effect is yet to be known but the narrative has started building. The stock market does not look excited however and the money lost by domestic investors may take a long time to come back, it seems.

As US President Donald Trump speaks about exposing India’s ‘wrong’ tariff policies in the absence of any statement from the Indian government striking out his claims, the Indian market for automobiles and other consumer goods looks destined for a rough ride. Stagnancy will be a part of the plot, the repercussions of which would stem from domestic structural issues as well as geopolitical shifts where calls like ‘China Plus One’ hold no value at all anymore.

With the entry of Tesla – which has seen its sales and stock prices plummet in many of existing markets off late – set to enter India with the government lowering tariff under pressure from the US President, the subject of too much regulation needs to be examined in terms of structural strength and the industry’s ability to be competitive. Local manufacture is also a subject that needs to be looked at as MSME sector continues to shrink and take down with it the PMI index.

Skilling is also a subject that should be looked at as engineering courses lose interest with the young in the country. A manufacturing-less economy that is also witnessing the services sector face a slowdown – again due to structural and geopolitical issues – may not spell a good omen for growth in the long run. This, particularly in the case of a country whose median age in 29 years.

China’s ‘Deep seek’ has shown how the prowess in technology can shift overnight and highly influence the economy of a nation, its stock markets suddenly. In India, the auto industry should nurture the MSME sector as much as the government should. A services alternative in terms of growth over manufacturing may not hold forth in the long-term. Manufacturing exports can shrink abruptly anytime under the shifting regulatory and other market issues in the domestic marketplace and under the shifting geopolitical situations in various parts of the world that also make lucrative export markets.  

Image for representative purpose only. 

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Tier 1 supplier Uno Minda has announced an expansion into the passenger vehicle seating systems segment with a new greenfield facility in Maharashtra.

The company’s board has approved the construction of a manufacturing facility in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Maharashtra, with an investment of INR 3.2 billion with operations scheduled to begin by Q4 FY2028.

The project will be managed by Uno Minda Tachi-S Seating, a joint venture between Uno Minda and TACHI-S Company of Japan. The joint venture, which began in September 2022 with the production of seat recliners, has now secured an order from an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for seating systems.

Ravi Mehra, Managing Director, Uno Minda, said, "This is one of the most exciting chapters in Uno Minda's growth story. Entering the complete 4W Passenger Vehicle Seating Systems segment isn't just a product expansion — it's a strategic leap that substantially increases our per-vehicle value potential and deepens our footprint in a segment that is central to the premium vehicle experience. This greenfield facility reflects our unwavering commitment to advanced domestic manufacturing and delivering the kind of high-performance seating comfort that India's rapidly evolving automotive market demands.”

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Autoliv and Great Wall Motor (GWM) have signed a Global Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement to expand their long-term partnership. The agreement follows a collaboration established in 2023 and aims to support GWM’s international expansion.

Under the framework, the companies will cooperate in areas including global business growth, supply chain management, localised operations and the development of safety systems. The partnership is intended to align innovation and product strategies.

Mikael Bratt, CEO, Autoliv, said, "Today's agreement marks an important step in our continued collaboration with Great Wall Motor. By combining GWM's international growth ambitions with Autoliv's global capabilities in automotive safety, we are strengthening the foundation for an even more integrated and resilient partnership."

Jack Wei, Chairman, Great Wall Motors, said, "Safety is the bottom line of the automotive industry. The partnership between Great Wall Motors and Autoliv began with a shared vision and a steadfast commitment to the mission of safety. Now we are strengthening our collaboration and will jointly build the industrial cornerstone of automotive safety and deliver safer Great Wall vehicles to users around the world."

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The Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) has released its performance review for FY2025–26, which saw the industry record a turnover of USD 85.9 billion (INR 7,600 billion), representing a growth of 12.7% compared to the previous year. Over the past five years, the sector has grown at a CAGR of 17 percent.

The industry body stated that supplies to OEMs rose by 16.3 percent to INR 6,628 billion, while the aftermarket segment grew by 9 percent to INR 1,084 billion. Exports increased by 5 percent to USD 24 billion, with Europe remaining the primary market. Imports grew by 13 percent to USD 25.4 billion, largely due to demand for technology products and components from China, Japan and Germany. Supplies for electric vehicles accounted for 4.6 percent of domestic OEM supplies, excluding lithium-ion batteries.

Vinnie Mehta, Director General, ACMA, said, “FY26 reaffirmed the strength and resilience of India’s auto component industry. Robust domestic demand, continued investments in capacity and technology, and the confidence of global customers enabled the industry to deliver another year of healthy growth despite a challenging international environment. As global supply chains continue to diversify, India is steadily strengthening its position as a trusted manufacturing and sourcing partner for the global automotive industry. While imports of advanced technology products and specialised components increased during the year, they also underline the next opportunity before us - to deepen localisation, accelerate technology development and move further up the value chain. The industry’s long-term competitiveness will increasingly be defined by innovation, quality, sustainability and supply-chain resilience.”

Vikrampati Singhania, President, ACMA, added: “The medium- to long-term outlook for the Indian auto component industry remains positive. Growing domestic demand, infrastructure-led economic growth, expanding manufacturing investments, deeper global integration through Free Trade Agreements and increasing global sourcing from India are creating significant opportunities for the sector. At the same time, geopolitical developments, supply-chain disruptions, the availability of critical minerals such as rare earth magnets, logistics costs and raw material volatility will require continued strategic focus. The industry remains committed to investing in advanced manufacturing, localisation, digitalisation and sustainable mobility solutions to enhance India’s global competitiveness.”

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Automotive retail sales in India touched a new record for the month of June with a total of 2,557,234 units sold, up 21.83 percent YoY, as against 2,098,996 units sold for the same period last year.

As per the latest data shared by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), the apex body representing automotive dealers in India, the record performance was witnessed across vehicle categories – two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles.

For June 2026, two-wheeler sales came at 1.82 million units, up 21.22 percent YoY, three-wheelers at 120,889 units, up 16.2 percent YoY, passenger vehicle at 410,853 units, up 26.6 percent YoY, tractors at 100,818 units, up 25.31 percent YoY and commercial vehicle at 90,972 units, up 16.8 percent YoY.

On the other hand, the construction equipment segment saw a decline of 40.94 percent YoY to 5,244 units, albeit a high base.

C S Vigneshwar, President, FADA, said, “Tractors recorded their second-best June ever. That such records have come in a seasonally transitional month underscores the structural depth of the India Growth Story and the widening aspirations of Bharat.”

He further stated that when it came to two-wheeler sales, saw a marginal MoM sequential decline due to rural demand dip on the back of late onset and uneven progress of south-west monsoon. This led to many customers opting for a ‘wait-and-watch mode’ for their purchase decisions. But on the flip side, dealers witnessed a strong demand for entry-level two-wheelers, improved supply from automakers and a decisive shift in demand for electric vehicle offerings.

“Two-wheeler electric vehicle share crossed double digits for the first time at 10.60 percent against 7.34 percent a year ago,” stated Vigneshwar.

Similarly, passenger vehicle retail sales also clocked their best performance for June, with both rural (+35.09 percent YoY) and urban markets (+24.67 percent YoY) witnessing strong demand. Share of alternative energy vehicles (CNG, hybrid and electric) crossed 40 percent share for the first time at 40.35 percent (CNG 24.33 percent, hybrid 8.27 percent and EV 7.75 percent).

“On the channel side, PV inventory increased by 1 day over May-end to 32–34 days, moving further from FADA’s recommended 21-day benchmark. We once again urge PV OEMs to calibrate dispatches to retail through the monsoon-soft July window so that dealer capital is not locked in aged stock,” said the executive.

Going forward, FADA has maintained a constructive outlook with all eyes on the onset of monsoon making up its deficit with kharif sowing gathering pace and supplies staying normalised following the West Asia ceasefire and easing crude prices.

Vigneshwar said, “For the two-wheeler segment, improving rural cashflows once rainfall catches up and the accelerating shift towards EV and fuel-efficient models should provide support, though deficient-rainfall pockets and the July OEM price hikes may keep some buyers in wait-and-watch mode. Passenger Vehicles enter the month with healthy booking pipelines, particularly in EVs and CNG, and fresh launches, while Commercial Vehicles should stay steady on freight and infrastructure-linked activity. The trajectory of the monsoon remains the single most important variable for rural demand, alongside price-hike absorption and financing turnaround times. Overall, the outlook for July’26 appears Cautiously Optimistic – with monsoon catch-up and rural cashflows the key swing factors ahead of the festive season.”

For Q2 FY2026, FADA expects continued sales momentum through the festive season. But dealers have identified a monsoon shortfall / El Niño could impact rural demand as the single biggest risk, followed by further price hikes affecting affordability and inventory pile-up pressure.

FADA expects that easing geopolitical and fuel-price uncertainty and broad policy continuity will provide a supportive runway into the festive quarter, with the monsoon the key monitorable for Bharat.

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