The voice about India’s car market staring at stagnancy is growing amid much selling by foreign investors in the stock market. Auto sticks of OEMs and suppliers have taken a beating lately. The reasons for stock market decline are said to be structural issues as well as geopolitical issues. In other words, they are local as well as global in their nature. The Indian auto industry – as the largest contributor of GST to the exchequer and among the highest contributor to the country's manufacturing GPD – is also quite local and global in its ways of working. 

Like any other developing nation, it is a market where the scope for an increase in automobile population is bright. It is also a market that is beset by structural issues nonetheless. With 34 cars owned per 1,000 people, the country with a population estimated to be 1,463,865,525 in 2025 has ample scope for auto sales growth. 

But as banks struggle for liquidity and a reduction in repo rate by the apex bank fails to reflect in the reduction of loan interest rates or equated monthly instalments, the structural issues facing the automobile industry are too stark to overlook.

Adding to the structural issues are perhaps developments such as the recent announecement by Maharashtra Government to levy six percent motor vehicle tax on premium electric vehicles. The leading industrialised state also has among the highest road toll taxes among other Indian states. The highway network in the state is among the most lacking and unsafe. Most roads in the state have either deteriorated or are under a seemingly unending period of repairs. 

The state government in its 2025 budget has also announced that it has raised the motor vehicle tax by one percentage point on individual-owned non-transport four-wheeler CNG and LPG vehicles. Such vehicles currently attract a seven to nine percent tax depending on their type and price.

While electricity costs have been rising with distribution companies like MSEDCL pushing for a revision in fixed and energy charges for various categories in order to bridge revenue gap, owning electric vehicles and CNG vehicles is becoming costlier though eco-friendlier.

Attracting over 200 percent in taxes, petrol and diesel prices have been at an all-time high. A timely upward revision in toll prices is only adding further to the cost of motoring in a country where close to or more than 50 of the vehicle purchase price amounts to taxes. Spares are also taxed at a hefty 28 percent and the labour costs have steeply risen post Covid-19 pandemic.

With vehicle prices being jacked up by automakers under the pretext of rising input costs by about four to five percent if not more, the Indian auto industry is clearly under pressure to maintain its margins and stay profitable.

Against the operating costs, the foot falls in the showroom are taking longer to realise into actual sales. Discounts are gaining speed and indicative of sales losing stream in some of the segments that were until recently doing very well.

Any excitement about a rebate in Income Tax up to INR 1,200,000 – it takes over INR 1,000,000 to purchase a decent car in India today – seeming to have faded into thin air, the talk about government announced a reduction in GST taxes has gained speed. When it would actually come into effect is yet to be known but the narrative has started building. The stock market does not look excited however and the money lost by domestic investors may take a long time to come back, it seems.

As US President Donald Trump speaks about exposing India’s ‘wrong’ tariff policies in the absence of any statement from the Indian government striking out his claims, the Indian market for automobiles and other consumer goods looks destined for a rough ride. Stagnancy will be a part of the plot, the repercussions of which would stem from domestic structural issues as well as geopolitical shifts where calls like ‘China Plus One’ hold no value at all anymore.

With the entry of Tesla – which has seen its sales and stock prices plummet in many of existing markets off late – set to enter India with the government lowering tariff under pressure from the US President, the subject of too much regulation needs to be examined in terms of structural strength and the industry’s ability to be competitive. Local manufacture is also a subject that needs to be looked at as MSME sector continues to shrink and take down with it the PMI index.

Skilling is also a subject that should be looked at as engineering courses lose interest with the young in the country. A manufacturing-less economy that is also witnessing the services sector face a slowdown – again due to structural and geopolitical issues – may not spell a good omen for growth in the long run. This, particularly in the case of a country whose median age in 29 years.

China’s ‘Deep seek’ has shown how the prowess in technology can shift overnight and highly influence the economy of a nation, its stock markets suddenly. In India, the auto industry should nurture the MSME sector as much as the government should. A services alternative in terms of growth over manufacturing may not hold forth in the long-term. Manufacturing exports can shrink abruptly anytime under the shifting regulatory and other market issues in the domestic marketplace and under the shifting geopolitical situations in various parts of the world that also make lucrative export markets.  

Image for representative purpose only. 

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Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, Piyush Goyal, inaugurated the Electric Vehicle (EV) Zone at the International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 89th General Meeting in New Delhi on 15 September 2025. The exhibition, hosted by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), runs until 19 September at Bharat Mandapam.

The EV Zone, organised by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), showcases the country's progress in electric mobility. Goyal toured the pavilion, which features 31 production-ready electric vehicles from 14 major manufacturers, including Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra and JSW MG Motor.

During the event, Minister Goyal emphasised that sustainability is a core pillar of India's growth strategy. He highlighted the importance of high-quality standards in protecting consumers and boosting the competitiveness of Indian-made products on the global stage. He also stated that ‘Design in India, Made in India’ products would soon be recognized globally for their reliability and excellence.

Prashant K Banerjee, Executive Director of SIAM, expressed appreciation for the government's vision, noting that the automotive industry is committed to this journey. The IEC GM 2025 has brought together over 2,000 global experts from more than 100 countries to discuss international standards, with the exhibition also featuring advancements in smart lighting, electronics, and IT manufacturing.

SIAM’s participation is part of its commitment to sustainable mobility and achieving India's Net Zero targets by 2070. Visitors to the EV Zone can also take a ‘Digital Sustainability Pledge,’ with BIS planting a sapling for each pledge made.

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The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) has released the results of its Dealer Satisfaction Study (DSS) 2025. The study, conducted in partnership with the Singapore-based consulting firm PremonAsia, was announced at the 7th Auto Retail Conclave on 10th September.

C.S. Vigneshwar, President, FADA, noted that the study provides a ‘true mirror’ to the relationship between dealers and OEMs. The study surveyed over 1,800 dealer principals, representing nearly 5,000 outlets across the country. For the first time, it was conducted in nine regional languages to ensure broader participation.

• JSW MG Motor captured the top position in the 4-Wheeler Mass Market segment with a score of 868 points.
• Royal Enfield led the 2-Wheeler segment with 852 points, followed by Hero MotoCorp. Both companies showed improvement from the previous year.
• Ashok Leyland retained its leadership in the Commercial Vehicle segment with 786 points.
• The 3-Wheeler segment was included again after three years, with Atul Auto topping the category with a score of 924 points.
• Volvo Cars topped the 4-Wheeler Luxury segment with 884 points.

The industry average dealer satisfaction score was 781, a 13-point increase from the previous year. Product continues to have the highest score across all categories, indicating dealers are largely satisfied with the quality, reliability and range offered by OEMs.

Rahul Sharma, Director and COO, PremonAsia, said, "close to two-thirds of dealer sentiment is shaped by after-sales service and viability factors. While after-sales service is the most important factor, Business and viability remains a key concern for dealers. Dealers cited issues such as buyback/write-off of unsold inventory, training cost-sharing arrangements and margins on vehicles and spare parts.”

Dealer satisfaction improved in the 2-wheeler segment compared to the previous year, but it declined in the 4-wheeler Mass Market and Commercial Vehicle segments. Vigneshwar stated that while the industry is performing well on product quality, structural issues like buyback policies, training costs and dealership viability cannot be ignored.

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The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the apex body representing automakers in the country, has announced the wholesales for August 2025.

The automotive industry saw a total of 2.23 million vehicles sold last month, which was 5 percent higher than, 2.13 million units sold for the same period last year.

In fact, barring the passenger vehicle segment, almost all segments were in the green. The passenger vehicle with sales of 321,840 units, was down 9 percent, on the back of inventory correction and automakers recalibrating dispatches as the recent reduction in Goods & Services Tax (GST) comes into effect starting 22 September.

The three-wheeler segment reported its best-ever sales performance for August with a total of 75,759 units being sold, which was 8 percent higher YoY.

The two-wheeler segment reported a healthy 7 percent growth with a robust 1.83 million units sold, which includes 1.10 million motorcycles (+4 %) and 683,397 scooters (+13 percent).

Rajesh Menon, Director General, SIAM said, “Sales of passenger vehicles in August 2025 de-grew by (-) 8.8 percent, posting sales of 3.22 lakh units as compared to August of previous year, primarily due to recalibration of dispatches by passenger vehicle manufacturers. Three wheelers posted their highest ever sales of August in 2025 of 0.76 lakh units, with a growth of 8.3 percent as compared to August 2024. Two-wheeler segment grew by 7.1 percent in August 2025, as compared to August 2024, with sales of 18.34 lakh units. The landmark decision of government of India to reduce the GST rates on vehicles will go a long way in enabling broader access to mobility and inject fresh momentum into the Indian automotive sector in the upcoming festive season.”

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India’s automotive leadership used Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers' 65th Annual Convention to signal continuity on emissions and safety policy, a pragmatic push on biofuels and electrification and a growing dependence on software-defined vehicles, while framing exports and supply-chain resilience as medium-term priorities.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a special message, said India must achieve “true self-reliance across the entire automotive manufacturing value chain,” adding that “as the nation advances towards global leadership in green and smart transportation, opportunities for investment and collaboration are immense.”

Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari said, “We will maintain global alignment on BS7 and CAFE norms to address air pollution issues,” linking the shift to alternative fuels with macro-objectives: “Moving to biofuels helps in reducing India’s crude imports and enhances farmer incomes.”

He added, “For those aiding road accident victims, INR 25,000 will be awarded to Rakshaveers,” alongside ‘insurance up to 150,000 to accident victims,’ while stating that public campaigns and NGO engagement are ‘essential to improve human behaviour to prevent accidents.’

Gadkari also said logistics costs would ‘come down to single digit by year end,’ and cited scrappage progress with ‘more than 300,000 vehicles’ dismantled to date.

Industry capacity and localisation

Union Minister of Heavy Industries and Steel H. D. Kumaraswamy said the production-linked incentive scheme has drawn ‘more than INR 295 billion of capital investments,’ and that the steel ecosystem is working on ‘developing specialised steel for the auto sector to reduce its import dependence.’

Tarun Kapoor, Adviser to the Prime Minister, urged industry to partner with the Anusandhan National Research Foundation and to scale ‘biofuels, gaseous fuel and electric mobility’ and compressed biogas, while ‘working towards enhancing presence in global markets.’

Hanif Qureshi, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Heavy Industries, noted government support to the EV ecosystem since 2015, the installation of ‘8,900+ public chargers’ and ‘around 10,900 e-buses,’ and called for investments in electric heavy vehicles.

Software-defined vehicles and AI

Rajan Wadhera, Member, SCALE Committee and former SIAM President, chaired the session on software-defined vehicles, where Dr Christopher Borroni-Bird, Founder, Afreecar (USA), said, “The path to SDVs is a major disruption for automakers.”

Dr Bird clarified distinctions between connected vehicles and fully software-defined platforms and noting rising software share in value.

A technology leader argued, “Generative AI is not simply another tool; it is a strategic enabler that is fundamentally shaping the Indian automotive sector, while acknowledging enterprise deployments are still early.”

Andreas Tschiesner, Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company, projected that “in 2035, we expect 30 percent of all produced vehicles will be built on zonal EE architectures, with cloud-managed development, AI-powered coding and virtual twins accelerating programmes.”

Exports, FTAs and supply chains

Rajesh Agrawal, Special Secretary, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, said, “India is now increasingly looking at integrating more with the world.”

He added, “We believe the next phase of growth, beyond a 4 trillion economy, will come through exporting to international markets and noting that India has signed FTAs with 27 countries.”

Sudhakar Dalela, Secretary (Economic Relations), Ministry of External Affairs, said, “the domestic market is robust but it is equally important for the auto industry to strengthen exports and diversify its supply chain, integrating into the global markets and value chains.”

SIAM President Shailesh Chandra, who is also MD of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and TPEM, pointed to ‘a record 5 million vehicles exported’ and called a recent UK FTA ‘a landmark,’ describing 20 percent export growth as ‘a powerful vote of confidence.’

OEM perspectives and next steps

Shenu Agarwal, Vice President, SIAM, and MD & CEO, Ashok Leyland, said commercial vehicles remain ‘pivotal for sustainable mobility,’ backing CNG and LNG in long-haul and ‘deep localisation of electric mobility.’

K. N. Radhakrishnan, Director & CEO, TVS Motor Company, highlighted ‘strong R&D momentum,’ progress on the circular economy and the need to ‘focus on developing local talent,’ adding, ‘The customer should remain at the centre of all decision making.’

Unsoo Kim, MD & CEO, Hyundai Motor India, said GST reforms have supported domestic manufacturing and rural demand and that AI will redefine mobility within enabling frameworks under Make in India.

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