The voice about India’s car market staring at stagnancy is growing amid much selling by foreign investors in the stock market. Auto sticks of OEMs and suppliers have taken a beating lately. The reasons for stock market decline are said to be structural issues as well as geopolitical issues. In other words, they are local as well as global in their nature. The Indian auto industry – as the largest contributor of GST to the exchequer and among the highest contributor to the country's manufacturing GPD – is also quite local and global in its ways of working. 

Like any other developing nation, it is a market where the scope for an increase in automobile population is bright. It is also a market that is beset by structural issues nonetheless. With 34 cars owned per 1,000 people, the country with a population estimated to be 1,463,865,525 in 2025 has ample scope for auto sales growth. 

But as banks struggle for liquidity and a reduction in repo rate by the apex bank fails to reflect in the reduction of loan interest rates or equated monthly instalments, the structural issues facing the automobile industry are too stark to overlook.

Adding to the structural issues are perhaps developments such as the recent announecement by Maharashtra Government to levy six percent motor vehicle tax on premium electric vehicles. The leading industrialised state also has among the highest road toll taxes among other Indian states. The highway network in the state is among the most lacking and unsafe. Most roads in the state have either deteriorated or are under a seemingly unending period of repairs. 

The state government in its 2025 budget has also announced that it has raised the motor vehicle tax by one percentage point on individual-owned non-transport four-wheeler CNG and LPG vehicles. Such vehicles currently attract a seven to nine percent tax depending on their type and price.

While electricity costs have been rising with distribution companies like MSEDCL pushing for a revision in fixed and energy charges for various categories in order to bridge revenue gap, owning electric vehicles and CNG vehicles is becoming costlier though eco-friendlier.

Attracting over 200 percent in taxes, petrol and diesel prices have been at an all-time high. A timely upward revision in toll prices is only adding further to the cost of motoring in a country where close to or more than 50 of the vehicle purchase price amounts to taxes. Spares are also taxed at a hefty 28 percent and the labour costs have steeply risen post Covid-19 pandemic.

With vehicle prices being jacked up by automakers under the pretext of rising input costs by about four to five percent if not more, the Indian auto industry is clearly under pressure to maintain its margins and stay profitable.

Against the operating costs, the foot falls in the showroom are taking longer to realise into actual sales. Discounts are gaining speed and indicative of sales losing stream in some of the segments that were until recently doing very well.

Any excitement about a rebate in Income Tax up to INR 1,200,000 – it takes over INR 1,000,000 to purchase a decent car in India today – seeming to have faded into thin air, the talk about government announced a reduction in GST taxes has gained speed. When it would actually come into effect is yet to be known but the narrative has started building. The stock market does not look excited however and the money lost by domestic investors may take a long time to come back, it seems.

As US President Donald Trump speaks about exposing India’s ‘wrong’ tariff policies in the absence of any statement from the Indian government striking out his claims, the Indian market for automobiles and other consumer goods looks destined for a rough ride. Stagnancy will be a part of the plot, the repercussions of which would stem from domestic structural issues as well as geopolitical shifts where calls like ‘China Plus One’ hold no value at all anymore.

With the entry of Tesla – which has seen its sales and stock prices plummet in many of existing markets off late – set to enter India with the government lowering tariff under pressure from the US President, the subject of too much regulation needs to be examined in terms of structural strength and the industry’s ability to be competitive. Local manufacture is also a subject that needs to be looked at as MSME sector continues to shrink and take down with it the PMI index.

Skilling is also a subject that should be looked at as engineering courses lose interest with the young in the country. A manufacturing-less economy that is also witnessing the services sector face a slowdown – again due to structural and geopolitical issues – may not spell a good omen for growth in the long run. This, particularly in the case of a country whose median age in 29 years.

China’s ‘Deep seek’ has shown how the prowess in technology can shift overnight and highly influence the economy of a nation, its stock markets suddenly. In India, the auto industry should nurture the MSME sector as much as the government should. A services alternative in terms of growth over manufacturing may not hold forth in the long-term. Manufacturing exports can shrink abruptly anytime under the shifting regulatory and other market issues in the domestic marketplace and under the shifting geopolitical situations in various parts of the world that also make lucrative export markets.  

Image for representative purpose only. 

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The share of electric buses in new bus sales in India is expected to reach 35-40 percent by FY2035, from the current level of around 7 percent states a recent report titled ‘Electrifying India’s Bus Industry – The Decade of Transformation’ by KPMG.

It indicates that the bus sector is entering a phase of structural change with the shift being driven by urbanisation, sustainability commitments and government-led mobility initiatives.

The report notes that the Indian bus market, which typically averages 35,000 to 50,000 units annually, is transitioning due to electrification and infrastructure investment. Buses currently account for nearly 57 percent of passenger-kilometres travelled in the country. Data shows that 16,300 electric buses were operational in India as of March 2026, and approximately 62,000 e-bus tenders have been issued to date.

Rohan Rao, Partner, KPMG India, said, “India’s electric bus transition is moving beyond a policy-led initiative to becoming a structural transformation opportunity for the broader mobility ecosystem. Public transport electrification has already created strong momentum, supported by government procurement programmes, improving cost economics, and increasing infrastructure investments.”

Raghavan Viswanathan, Partner, KPMG in India, added, “India’s e-bus ecosystem is entering a critical phase where scale, localisation and execution capabilities will become key differentiators. While public transport undertakings continue to lead adoption, the next phase of growth is expected to emerge from private intercity mobility, airport transport, platform-based mobility solutions and corporate fleets.”

The analysis finds that electric buses offer 70 percent higher energy efficiency and lower lifetime emissions than diesel equivalents. In public intracity operations, electric buses have reached total cost of ownership parity with diesel and CNG variants under high-utilisation scenarios.

Government schemes, such as PM-eBus Sewa, are projected to save between 1 and 2 million tonnes of CO2 and reduce oil imports by USD 2 to 3 billion over the concession period.

Projections suggest that India will tender nearly 40,000 additional electric buses by 2030. Within the public transport segment specifically, electric vehicle penetration is expected to exceed 85 percent by FY2035. Coordination between manufacturers, financiers and infrastructure providers remains a factor in achieving these targets.

Representational image courtesy: Tata Motors

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On May 14, 2026, Japanese automotive major Honda Motor Co, unveiled a comprehensive roadmap to restructure its automobile business, prioritising a ‘multi-faceted approach’ to carbon neutrality that leans heavily on next-generation hybrid technology and strategic growth in three key regions.

Facing a challenging global environment and a slowing EV market, Honda is reallocating resources to ensure a return to record profitability by FY2029.

Interestingly, it has identified India as one of three ‘priority regions’ (alongside North America and Japan) central to Honda's future growth strategy. To address past limitations in the region, Honda is shifting away from standard global specifications toward a market-specific approach.

The Japanese automotive major has announced the establishment of a new subsidiary – Honda Digital Innovation India (HDII), which will be based in Bengaluru. This new subsidiary will build a digital platform to integrate motorcycle and automobile services, creating a unique mobility ecosystem.

Furthermore, in 2028, Honda will introduce strategic models tailored to Indian preferences, specifically targeting the high-volume ‘under 4 meters’ category and the mid-size segment.  

Leveraging its massive motorcycle footprint (nearly 6 million units sold annually), Honda aims to capture customers upgrading from two-wheels to entry-level automobiles.

Honda has announced its plans to increase its annual two-wheeler production capacity in India from 6.25 million to 8 million units by 2028, positioning the country as a primary global export hub.

In addition, a new financial services arm is scheduled to become operational by March 31, 2027, to bolster sales opportunities in India.

While Honda remains committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, it is strategically slowing some EV initiatives – including suspending a comprehensive EV value chain project in Canada – to focus on the immediate demand for hybrid vehicles.

The ‘Triple Half’ Approach

To compete with emerging OEMs, Honda is implementing a lean manufacturing and development strategy. The ‘Triple Half’ initiative seeks to reduce development costs, timeframes and workloads by 50 percent compared to 2025 levels.

Honda aims to improve production efficiency by 20 percent over the next five years through digital transformation and AI.

The company will move away from complete internalisation, instead leveraging external partnerships for batteries (such as the L-H Battery joint venture) and standardising components to mitigate tariff impacts and supply risks.

Honda anticipates that these structural changes will lead to a record-high operating profit of JPY 1.4 trillion by FY2029. During this period, the company plans to invest JPY 6.2 trillion in total resources, with JPY 4.4 trillion specifically dedicated to petrol and hybrid models. For shareholders, Honda has committed to stable and continuous dividend payments with a target 3 percent Dividend on Equity (DOE).

Toshihiro Mibe, Director, President and Representative Executive Officer (Global CEO), Honda Motor Co, said, “India is one of the few markets in the world where further expansion is expected in the future. However, currently, Honda is present in only a limited range of product segments and has not been able to fully expand sales volume due to an insufficient number of competitive models in each segment. One contributing factor is that we have not been able to deliver products fully aligned with the characteristics and preferences of customers in India. It has been our standard approach to develop all products based on global standard performance specifications, regardless of target countries and regions and to sell such products in different regions.”

“However, climate conditions, vehicle usage patterns, customer preferences and other factors vary significantly from country to country and region to region. As environmental regulations and other laws and rules are also different, in some cases, the global specifications of our vehicles have been somewhat excessive in the Indian market. Therefore, we will redefine the best specifications that are well aligned with the market environment and customer needs in India.

“Then, in 2028, we will begin introducing strategic models tailored to the Indian market that pursue an optimal balance of performance and price that satisfies our customers in India. To be more specific, we will launch our strategic models in two categories. One is for ‘vehicles under 4 meters in length’, which has the largest volume in India, and the other is the mid-size category. We will proactively utilise local development resources, including external resources, and introduce new models as quickly as possible. The solid foundation of our motorcycle business will become the key strength of Honda in this market," said Mibe.

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The Indian automotive industry continues to grow leaps and bounds. In fact, as per the latest data released by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM), a total of 2.37 million vehicles were sold last month, up 28 percent YoY, as against 1.85 million vehicles sold in April 2025.

In April 2026, the two-wheeler segment at 1.87 million units, up 28 percent YoY, three-wheelers at 65,558 units, up 33 percent YoY and passenger vehicles at 437,312 units, up 25 percent YoY, all clocked high double-digit growth.

Notably, passenger cars segment grew at 33 percent, SUVs at 21 percent, motorcycles at 31 percent, three-wheelers e-cart at 55 percent and goods carrier at 45 percent, YoY, respectively, reported robust growth.

Rajesh Menon, Director General, SIAM, said, “Continuing with the momentum of the second half of FY 2025-26, the first month of FY 2026-27, posted high double-digit growth in passenger vehicles, three-wheelers and two-wheelers. In April 2026, the passenger vehicles recorded their highest-ever sales of 437,312 units with a growth of 25.4 percent, over April 2025. Three-wheelers also posted its highest ever sales of 65,558 units, registering a growth of 32.8 percent, compared to April 2025.”

“Though there are concerns of high commodity prices emanating from the disruptions in West Asia, Industry has been witnessing good demand,” he concluded.

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French automotive supplier Valeo has joined the Automotive Plastics Circularity project, a flagship initiative of the Global Impact Coalition (GIC). The move marks a strategic expansion of the coalition, connecting chemical producers directly with component design and manufacturing to create a closed-loop system for automotive plastics.

As a tier-one supplier, Valeo occupies a critical position between raw material producers and vehicle manufacturers (OEMs). Its involvement is expected to bridge the gap between technical feasibility and large-scale commercial adoption of recycled materials.

As part of the commitment, Valeo will help establish the rigorous performance standards required for recycled plastics to be used in high-performance automotive components. The collaboration focuses on ‘circular design’ – ensuring that components are engineered from the start to be easily recovered and reused at a vehicle's end-of-life (ELV). Moving beyond ‘proof of concept’ to create a predictable and affordable supply chain for high-quality recycled polymers. It will address the increasing global pressure and evolving regulations that mandate a higher percentage of recycled content in new vehicles.

Christophe Le Ligne, Group Vice President Research & Development, Valeo, said, “Circularity is central to Valeo’s strategy, and joining the Global Impact Coalition is a promising next step in our sustainability journey. True scaling of circularity requires deep cooperation across the entire value chain. Our focus is on tackling the challenge of integrating high-quality recycled materials from End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) into demanding applications, building a new circular value chain that ensures long-term material affordability and accessibility.”

Charlie Tan, CEO, GIC, added, “Valeo brings the perspective of where design and material decisions are actually made, and that is vital. This strengthens our ability to move from proof of concept to something that can be implemented across the industry.”

The Automotive Plastics Circularity project has already proven that recovering plastics from ELVs is technically possible. The current phase, now bolstered by Valeo’s engineering expertise, focuses on economic viability. By aligning the incentives of chemical companies and component designers, the project aims to ensure that circularity becomes a standard operational model rather than a niche sustainability project.

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