ICRA, one of the leading ratings agency, expects the domestic commercial vehicle industry’s wholesale volumes to witness a nominal YoY growth of 0-3 percent in FY2025, against the earlier estimated decline of 4-7 percent. This follows a better-than-expected volume growth in 4M FY2025 and expectations of a marginal uptick in demand in the second half of the fiscal. 

FY2025 will be the second consecutive year of muted growth after a 1 percent and 3 percent YoY growth in wholesale and retail sales, respectively, in FY2024.

Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice-President & Co-Group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA: “A range of factors such as the slowdown in infrastructure activities during the General Elections, as well as extreme heatwaves across the country, had some bearing on demand in Q1 FY2025. However, volumes in this period exceeded ICRA’s expectations. Looking ahead, ICRA expects a recovery in volumes in H2 FY2025 aided by a back-ended government capex, some pick-up in private capex across manufacturing sectors, and an improvement in rural demand, following visibility around the Kharif crop output and farm cash flows. The replacement demand would also remain healthy (primarily due to the ageing fleet) and is expected to support the industry volumes in the medium term.”

“The long-term growth drivers for the domestic CV industry remain intact, like the sustained push in infrastructure development (evidenced by retaining the higher infrastructure capital outlay in the July 2024 budgetary allocation), a steady increase in mining activities, and the improvement in roads/highway connectivity.”

ICRA states that medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) (trucks) volumes in FY2025 are expected to report a nominal growth of 0-3 percent YoY, given the high base effect and the impact of the General Elections on infrastructure activities in the first few months of the fiscal. The segment had ended FY2024 with flattish volumes. Within this sub-segment, while the tipper volumes reported 4 percent YoY contraction in Q1 FY2025, the haulage sub-segment showed a modest 3 percent YoY growth for the quarter. Tractor-trailers reported a modest 7 percent YoY volume growth in Q1 FY2025.

Domestic light commercial vehicles (LCV) (trucks) wholesale volumes are expected to show a tepid YoY growth of -1 percent to 2 percent in FY2025 due to factors such as a high base effect, sustained slowdown in e-commerce and cannibalisation from electric three-wheelers. The segment had witnessed a mild decline of 3 percent on a YoY basis in FY2024, owing to the above factors, in addition to a deficit rainfall impacting the rural economy. Increased total cost of ownership of LCVs has also led to a rising preference for pre-owned vehicles by the small fleet operators, which may impact the demand, going forward.

The scrappage of older government vehicles is expected to drive replacement demand for the bus segment from state road transport undertakings (SRTUs) in FY2025, supporting a YoY growth of 8-11 percent. The sub-segment volumes gained considerable traction in FY2024 and exceeded the pre-covid levels.

In terms of powertrain mix, conventional fuels (primarily diesel) continue to dominate the domestic CV industry with a penetration of over 90 percent, while alternative fuels (CNG, LNG and electric) had driven around 9 percent sales in FY2024. Relatively higher penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has been witnessed in buses (as e-buses were covered under FAME-II subsidies but not the other sub-segments), followed by LCV goods, with a penetration of 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in FY2024.

ICRA expects the operating profit margin (OPM) of the domestic CV original equipment manufacturers to remain range bound in FY2025 to 9.5 percent to 10.5 percent on the back of muted volumes and higher competitive pricing pressures, although factors such as cost improvement, favourable raw material costs and better product discipline are expected to lend some support to the profitability. 

The operating margins in FY2024 had improved by almost 300 bps to 10.7 percent supported by operating leverage benefits and better product mix. In addition, lower discounting and benign commodity prices aided in the margin expansion in FY2024. The capex and investments for the industry are likely to increase to around INR 56-58 billion in FY2025, against about INR 34 billion in FY2024. These will be mainly towards product development, especially in the areas of alternate powertrains, technology upgradation and maintenance-related activities.

“ICRA foresees the credit metrics of the industry to remain stable in FY2025 even as margins may contract marginally and capex outlay is anticipated to increase. The continued strong operating performance is expected to support the coverage metrics of the industry, with Total Debt / OPBITDA projected at 1.2-1.4 times as on March 31, 2025, against 1.5 times in as on 31 March, 2024 and interest coverage at 6.8-7.2x in FY2025, against 7.2 times in FY2024,” concluded Shah.

Mumbai-headquartered automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has announced an ambitious growth plan for its commercial vehicle (CV) business, thanks to the recent strategic acquisition of a majority stake in SML Isuzu. The company aims to leverage this acquisition to accelerate its ‘Deliver Scale’ strategy across segments where it believes it has a strong ‘right to win.’

Dr Anish Shah, Managing Director and CEO, Mahindra Group, emphasised that the group’s disciplined focus on capital allocation remains intact. "We have seen significant growth across several businesses, and now, as we enter our third phase, the focus is on delivering scale," he said.

Shah also noted that Mahindra has turned around its CV business, once under scrutiny five years ago, and sees the acquisition of SML Isuzu as a strategic opportunity to cement its position further.

Today, Mahindra is the market leader in SUVs with a 23 percent market share and ranks fifth in the CV segment above 3.5 tonnes with a 3 percent share. Through the acquisition, Mahindra aims to become a more formidable player in the CV space.

"We are targeting a combined market share of 10-12 percent by FY2031 and over 20 percent by FY2036," said Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO – Auto and Farm Sectors, Mahindra & Mahindra. He acknowledged that Mahindra’s CV share, which stood at around 4-5 percent in FY2020, had dropped due to the impact of Covid-19. However, with renewed focus, especially in the LCV and ILCV segments, Mahindra is planning an aggressive recovery.

SML Isuzu brings strength in the intermediate LCV bus segment, holding a 16 percent market share. Mahindra expects that, combined, they could command a 21 percent share. "The synergies are substantial across cost structures, platforms, aggregates, supplier networks, and operations," Jejurikar added.

Growth, Not Cost-Cutting

Mahindra leaders were clear that the SML Isuzu acquisition is not about cost-cutting, but about building scale. "This deal is about growth, not about taking costs out," stressed Amarjyoti Barua, Chief Financial Officer, Mahindra Group. He highlighted that SML Isuzu will remain a separately listed entity and that Mahindra has no plans to rebrand it under the Swaraj name, even though it sees potential for the Swaraj brand in certain export markets.

Financially, Mahindra believes the deal makes strategic sense. Shah pointed out that the SML Isuzu business will be self-sustaining in generating cash for future investments.

The company sees SML Isuzu's operations as a ‘well-run and frugal factory,’ with most future investments primarily required to ramp up capacity.

Vinod Sahay, President - Aerospace & Defence, Trucks, Buses & CE, Mahindra, underlined how the product portfolios of Mahindra and SML Isuzu complement each other. SML Isuzu, for instance, is at an advanced stage in developing electric buses for school, staff and executive coach applications, an area where Mahindra's electrification expertise can add substantial value.

Sahay further highlighted how combining Mahindra and SML Isuzu’s supplier ecosystems will strengthen bargaining power, especially in critical areas like tyres, batteries and key aggregates. While Mahindra boasts strong sourcing power in tyres and batteries, SML Isuzu has an edge in CV parts.

Product synergy is another opportunity. SML’s strong CNG product line and Mahindra’s newer Furio and Cruzio models – offering 8-10 percent better fuel efficiency – will allow the combined business to offer compelling choices to customers across the LCV, ILCV and M&HCV categories.

With over 200 dealers and 400 touchpoints between them, Mahindra plans to optimise and expand network coverage for a wider reach.

While Mahindra is bullish on growth, Shah made it clear that there are no immediate plans for further acquisitions. "Now the business must prove itself," he said, reiterating the company’s strategic belief in building businesses that have a clear right to win, strong financial metrics and differentiated products.

Looking ahead, Mahindra is betting that a stable yet evolving CV market – especially in buses and light trucks, which the management stated will provide the runway needed for long-term growth, as the group consolidates its position as a dominant player across automotive categories.

Mumbai-based automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has announced a bold move to strengthen its position in the commercial vehicle (CV) market with an agreement to acquire a 58.96 percent stake in SML Isuzu (SML) at INR 650 per share, representing an investment of INR 5.55 billion.

Following the acquisition, Mahindra will also launch a mandatory open offer to acquire up to an additional 26 percent stake from public shareholders, in compliance with SEBI's Takeover Regulations.

This strategic acquisition marks a major step forward in Mahindra’s ambition to expand its footprint in the >3.5-tonne CV segment. At present, Mahindra holds a modest 3 percent market share in this space, compared to its dominant 52 percent share in the <3.5-tonne light commercial vehicle (LCV) market. With the addition of SML’s capabilities and brand strength, Mahindra expects to immediately double its market share to 6 percent, and is aiming for 10–12 percent by FY2031 and over 20 percent by FY2036.

Founded in 1983, SML Isuzu is a listed company with a all-India presence and a strong legacy in the trucks and buses segment. It holds a leading 16 percent market share in the Intermediate Light Commercial Vehicle (ILCV) buses category. For FY2024, SML reported operating revenue of INR 21.96 billion and an EBITDA of INR 1.79 billion, showcasing profitable operations, frugal manufacturing and strong engineering capabilities.

Mahindra sees the acquisition as an opportunity to unlock significant value through synergies across cost optimisation, network expansion, brand integration, manufacturing efficiency, talent pool strengthening and complementary product portfolios. Mahindra states that its Trucks and Buses Division has already made notable advances in technology, design and innovation by leveraging its broader automotive capabilities – strengths that will be further enhanced through this deal.

The transaction structure involves Mahindra acquiring the entire 43.96 percent stake held by Sumitomo Corporation, the current promoter of SML, as well as a 15 percent stake from Isuzu Motors.

Dr Anish Shah, Group CEO & MD, Mahindra Group, said: “The acquisition of SML Isuzu marks a significant milestone in Mahindra Group’s vision of delivering 5x growth in our emerging businesses. This acquisition is aligned with our capital allocation strategy for investing in high-potential growth areas that have a strong right to win and have demonstrated operational excellence.”

Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO, Auto and Farm Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra, added, “SML brings a strong legacy, a loyal customer base and a credible product portfolio that complements Mahindra’s existing offerings in the trucks and buses segment. This acquisition is a pivotal step toward our ambition to become a full-range, formidable player in commercial vehicles by enhancing market coverage, unlocking operating leverage through platform consolidation, a unified supplier and network base, and better plant utilisation. Together, we are well-positioned to scale rapidly and drive profitable growth.”

In what may come as a welcome push for road safety in India, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) plans to launch a new safety assessment rating for trucks and commercial vehicles on the lines of the Bharat New Car Assessment Program (BNCAP).

The announcement was made by Nitin Gadkari, Union Minister of Road Transport & Highways, while inaugurating a two-day workshop of Vehicle and Fleet safety jointly organised by the Global New Car Assessment Program (GNCAP) and the Institute of Road Traffic Education (IRTE).

“The idea is to encourage manufacturers to improve the production quality, making vehicles safer. Similarly, the government is already working on standards and a safety assessment system for battery-operated e-rikshaws in the country, as they suffer from safety issues. The safety improvement in e-rickshaws will improve their quality and generate more employment. India accounts for the highest number of fatal road accidents with 4.8 lakh road crashes each year resulting in 1.8 lakh deaths. The government’s top priority is on road safety, expansion of safe highways and vehicle safety and bolstering electric vehicles. The ministry is also working on reducing logistics cost to 9 percent in the next couple of years from the present 14-16 percent, as the automobile industry plays a key role in India’s economic growth.”

He further added that MoRTH was now also working on a law to determine the working hours for truck drivers. At present, many truckers continue to drive vehicles for 13-14 hours a day, as the country is facing a shortage of truck drivers.

The government also plans to set up 32 state-of-the-art driving institutes across the country. Air conditioning of driver compartments has already been made mandatory by the ministry. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) to assist drivers has also been made mandatory”, the minister added.

It was just a few days back government introduced road safety as part of the school curriculum for students of classes 1-12, the modules are expected to be introduced in the current academic year.

David Ward, President Emeritus, Global NCAP, said, “Consumers in India with most vehicles having GNCAP and BNCAP assessment ratings have a better choice of safer vehicles. It is a good moment towards the UN objective of road safety by 2030.”

Dr Rohit Baluja, President, IRTE, added, “The two-day workshop will review progress in vehicle safety worldwide and in India since 2000 and the priority actions needed to achieve further improvements by 2030 and beyond. In particular, the meeting will examine efforts to improve automobile safety worldwide by reviewing the progress made by the G20 major economies, including India, to implement the Global Plan vehicle safety recommendations and feature special sessions on fleet and motorcycle safety.”

Montra Electric’s e-SCV (small commercial vehicles) division, Tivolt Electric Vehicles has inaugurated its first e-SCV dealership in Jaipur, Rajasthan, which also is its first in the region.

The new channel partner Ensol Infratech has a state-of-the-art 3S (sales, service, spares and charging) facility to provide a comprehensive buying and aftersales support.

The dealership was inaugurated by Jalaj Gupta, Managing Director, TI Clean Mobility (Montra Electric) and Arun Sharma, Managing Director, Ensol Infratech, in presence of Saju Nair, CEO, Tivolt Electric vehicles, Sunil Kataria, Director, Ensol Infratech and key stakeholders, including dealers, customers, suppliers and other guests.

With this Montra Electric’s Eviator e-SCV will be available in Jaipur. It comes with a claimed certified range of 245 km and a real-world range of 170 km, 80 kW motor and an 300 Nm torque. The company currently offers an extended warranty of up to 7 years or 2.5 lakh km.

Jalaj Gupta, said, “Montra Electric has been at the forefront of India’s EV transformation, and we are excited to inaugurate our first dealership in the state of Rajasthan. Eviator is India’s first TRU-EV, setting a new benchmark in mid-mile and last-mile mobility with its advanced design, powerful performance, and exceptional durability. The launch of this dealership facility is a testament to our vision of delivering cutting-edge, high-performance e-SCV in the region.”

Saju Nair, added, “Rajasthan is an important market for us, and we are thrilled to mark our entry into the state with our first dealership in Jaipur. At Montra Electric, we are driven by a strong commitment to innovation and sustainability in clean mobility. This launch is a significant milestone in our journey, enabling us to get closer to our customers and deliver high-performance electric small commercial vehicles (e-SCVs) that meet their evolving needs. Our partnership with Ensol Infratech further strengthens our ability to provide customised solutions and outstanding service across the region.”

Arun Sharma, shared, “We are delighted to join hands with Montra Electric in setting up this new dealership. This collaboration marks a significant step in strengthening Montra Electric’s footprint as a leading EV brand in the region, while improving customer access to dependable, high-performance electric small commercial vehicles. Together, we look forward to expanding our reach and delivering tailored mobility solutions that cater to the evolving transportation needs of our customers.”